Patent Cliff Analysis with Medicare Spending: 2026-2030

Medicare Part D as a Proxy for Revenue Impact

This analysis uses Medicare Part D spending as an approximate way to visualize patent cliff impact. It's not total drug revenue, but serves as a useful proxy for understanding the magnitude of losses:

• Why it works as a proxy: Medicare Part D (~30% of US drug spending) shows the same decline patterns as total revenue after generic entry. When Lyrica lost exclusivity, Part D spending dropped 97% — and total revenue followed the same trajectory.
• Public and verifiable: CMS publishes exact dollar amounts per drug annually. Company 10-K/10-Q filings also report revenue by drug — we could extend this analysis with that data.
• Conservative estimate: For drugs with elderly patient populations (cardiovascular, diabetes, oncology), Medicare is often the largest single payer — so Part D may actually represent 40-50% of US sales.

For precise total revenue: Company SEC 10-K filings report product-level sales. This dashboard is an academic exercise using publicly available data to illustrate patent cliff dynamics.